Avengers: Infinity War is not a terrible movie, but nor is it a particularly good one**. The action is chaotic, most of the Avengers are annoying, and by far the best thing in it is Thanos, the crazed Titan. He is absurdly powerful, ruthless, amoral, charismatic yet prone to sentiment and generally he gets what he wants. Everyone is scared of him and sucks up accordingly. His basic schtick is that he will rule everything, forever. It’s his destiny. People will suffer of course, but that’s all justified. It’s the way things have to be.
This sounds familiar.
I watched it on the way to the US recently, which was strangely appropriate. Here’s the parallel: Thanos represents the opposition to Trump, which based on my careful scientific analysis is: 45% various Clintons, 35% the Godking Obama (and toadies like Brennan), 20% most of the media, trailing in the wake of the big two. Trump is, I suppose, the Avengers. The analogy falls down a bit, as however much you may dislike Trump, he’s nowhere near as irritating as Chris Evans playing Captain America, or Mark Ruffalo as the Hulk.
Three takeaway quotes from my piece, which was written before Trump even got the nomination:
~ he’ll gain votes from former Democrats who can’t stand Hillary and actually like what Trump says, but they won’t tell pollsters that
~ he will gain more of the black and Hispanic votes than anyone is predicting at the moment
~ foreign policy will be left to a smart Secretary of State and the military
Feel free to disagree, but they stand up well in my view, although I think Trump personally has been pretty canny in foreign policy, aided by a superb team. Apart from my ego, though, why am I writing this? Because the midterm elections are imminent, for all of Congress, some of the Senate and various governorships, and the drums are already beating for the 2020 presidential contest.
My own take from hanging out in California for a while, and talking to lots of people can be easily summarised:
- affluence is increasing, nearly across the board
- everyone is pretty happy with this
- net immigration is still essential for the economy, but there is no reason why this cannot all be through the ordinary legal procedures, ie. there is no reason for illegal immigration other than to increase the potential Democratic Party voter base
- there is not – apart from in various parts of the media – lots of overt hatred for Trump, nor any huge wish for Hillary. In fact, in all of my travels around San Francisco – not in the tourist areas – I saw a single solitary faded Hillary flyer (pictured below)
- Trump’s ‘unexpected’ popularity with ethnic minority voters seems likely to continue, and almost certainly increase
The last point is relevant, given the new evidence – not denied – that Google did its very best to influence Hispanic voters to go for Hillary, yet they failed. Miserably.
I conclude that in 2020 there will be virtually no Trump voters who change sides – barring some unpredictable disaster – yet there will be former Dem voters who do cross over, with their new jobs, higher wages and sense that the country is moving on. Which it is.
The reliance by the Dems, with their overweening sense of entitlement, on the votes of black and Hispanic and voters in perpetuity exactly mirrors Gordon Brown and Labour’s hubristic view of Scotland. Keep ’em poor and reliant on the government. When the hyped up SNP came along, Labour – to use a phrase – didn’t see it coming. The SNP are losing support now, deservedly, given their incompetence, bullying and parochial obsessions, but it took a while. Trump is probably still in the ascent phase.
So I predict Trump with a straightforward win in 2020 – health permitting, assuming no unforeseen calamity. ‘Russian collusion’ won’t finish him, mainly because it doesn’t exist.
As for the midterms, I can’t say. I suspect however that they will also go the Republicans’ way, but they do highlight a strange fact – Trump is a one off, and people will vote for him and continue to loathe their local Republican, so all bets are off for now.
As for Thanos – he always fails in the end, causing immense misery and destruction on the way.
Not a bad analogy for the miserable Dems.