Most predictions get forgotten, as will this one, but it’s still a risky business in terms of looking stupid. The tweet on the left, for example, is the confident claim by Dan Hodges, on Twitter, regarding the outcome of the forthcoming referendum. Dan has good form on most big political happenings, but I think he’s overreached himself on this one. We shall see.
Likewise, the climate change school of obsessives have an appalling track record when it comes to predictions, which they thoroughly deserve to have flung in their faces at every opportunity, given the hassle and expense they want to inflict on the rest of us, not to mention colossal hubris.
However, up there with Brexit is this year’s big prediction, the US presidential election. The Republican party machine is pulling out all the stops to knock Trump down, but it’s not working. I find Trump dislikeable, but no more so than Obama and far less so than Hillary. As far as I can see, his relationship with truth is no worse than either of that pair. As neither Trump nor Hillary will do anything to clean up the debased social and political culture of the 21st century USA, there’s not a ‘moral’ reason to favour one over the other, although Hillary is probably marginally more crazy for abortion****.
So here’s my predictions***:
- Trump will be the Republican candidate, without a brokered convention
- The party will rally round him with a few unimportant exceptions
- He will rapidly and overtly assemble a team of big hitters — few people will turn him down
- He will win the election
- That will primarily be because he’ll gain votes from former Democrats who can’t stand Hillary and actually like what Trump says, but they won’t tell pollsters that
- A negligible number of Republican voters will defect, or abstain
- He will gain more of the black and Hispanic***** votes than anyone is predicting at the moment
- He will be far more cautious and pragmatic in office than current rhetoric suggests – he will listen to advisers****
- Sadly,there will not be a mass exodus of pathetic celebrities from the US – the Paul O’Grady rule will apply
- Economically he will avoid the threatened trade war, but send out a few protectionist messages
- Foreign policy will be left to a smart Secretary of State and the military
- I’ve no idea what he’ll do in reality re immigration******
Funnily enough, one of the most telling developments about Trump has come from a surprising source. In the early 60’s, civil rights black activist Medgar Evers was murdered in a blatantly racist case, which took 30 years to reach a conviction, for all the notorious reasons of ingrained prejudice,establishment cover up etc
Here is Evers’ 93 year old brother, Charles, talking about Trump this week:
“I believe in him first of all because he’s a businessman. I think jobs are badly needed in Mississippi…I haven’t seen any proof of him being a racist. All of us have some racism in us. Even me….Our catfish is shipped to China and brought back for us to buy. Put a catfish farm here” If the last bit sounds a bit obscure, he’s referring to the lack of jobs in Mississippi for traditionally local industries. “We need jobs here. And the main reason I like him is he shoots from the hip. He doesn’t have written speeches and all that kind of stuff. I’d also like to see Donald Trump bring one of those casinos to Jackson.”
Set aside the silly ‘Trump is a racist’ hyperbole being attempted by various Dems and media types**. If Charles Evers will vote for him for pragmatic reasons, and because he believes Trump can deliver, so will a lot of other people who are disenfranchised working class, and concerned both about outsourcing jobs and illegal immigration, regardless of their ethnic background. This doesn’t even begin to touch on Trump’s declared robustness on terrorism, the lack of which is one reason why Obama will end up with a very tarnished legacy.
If I had a vote there and it’s Hillary or Trump, then it’s Trump. I’m not alone******
**Ann Coulter can be a bit over the top, but she nails it here. Very funny
***One week after I blogged, Conrad Black reaches very similar conclusions
****with great verve and mastery of the facts, Victor Davis Hanson explores these comparisons brilliantly
****Six weeks after I wrote the post, try this balanced reassessment of Trump
***** See what I mean?
******There’s always more
******* 6 months after I wrote this post, here’s Charles Krauthammer, saying much the same thing, really, except CK suggests a few pointers