I don’t agree with Nick

Two days after Cleggie’s unlikely new messiah performance, and with various polls coming up with exciting avant garde results, it must be time for the contrarians to fight back.

The Knife watched the debate last Thursday. Good format, the time flew past. Brown was predictable and pretty useless – the best bit was the most forced “joke” ever uttered by a British politician, with a beautifully clunking Ashcroft reference.

Number 18 was nice...

Clegg was like a horny teenager with a couple of drinks on board. The Knife had him and Cameron about equal for different reasons, and was baffled by the subsequent adulation – definitely a novelty effect. The result at the time online was a lot closer, so a lot of it has been shock of the new, herd behaviour etc. Pompous Chris Huhne and the laughable Vince Cable must have been slightly sick.

Dave was definitely holding back. This was a tactic, not a failure to perform. Might well have been a poor tactic, but that’s slightly different.

From “hug a huskie” onwards, Cameron has shown a grasp of the long term that suggests a strategist more than an opportunist, not always the best thing, but that’s what was going on here.

Unlike Cleggie, there was nothing in it for Dave to come too soon. He can’t coast the 2nd debate though, the 3rd might be too late. The debates are  going to matter more to swing voters and marginal seats than most of us had realised.

So, Brown dead in the water with the public, but humiliatingly desperate, along with his “friend” Mandy for a hung parliament. Dave playing it cool, taking a small risk. Going for the majority. Cleggie – came too soon. I would say that he’d be a better Home Secretary than Grayling, but for the fact that I’ve heard his policies. Filling Inverness with Somalians is my favourite.

The Knife made money on the Grand National with the winner at 20/1. William Hill online , right now:

No Overall 8/11
Conservative Majority 11/8
Labour Majority 10/1
Liberal Democrat Majority 20/1

Not much profit there in backing Dave. Time to look at the minutiae instead.

It’s a Tory majority still.

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